Prediction: by 2021 Dec 31, my forecasting newsletter will exceed 500 subscribers


Prediction by: NunoSempere
Confidence: 50-100%
Stakes: up to $20
Created at: 2021 Aug 01 11:59
Betting closed: 2021 Aug 29 11:59
Resolution: it happened
History
WhenResolutionNotes
2021 Dec 31 12:04happened

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Betting has closed on this prediction, sorry!

Huh? What is this?

This site is a tool that helps people make friendly wagers, thereby clarifying and concretizing their beliefs and making the world a better, saner place.

NunoSempere is putting their money where their mouth is: they've staked $20 of real-life money on this prediction, and they're willing to bet at the above odds against anybody they trust. Good for them!

If you know and trust NunoSempere, and they know and trust you, and you disagree with them on this prediction, then log in to bet against them!


But... why would you do this?

Personally, when I force myself to make concrete predictions -- especially on topics I feel strongly about -- it frequently turns out that I don't actually believe what I thought I did. Crazy, right!? Brains suck! And betting, i.e. attaching money to my predictions, is an incentive to actually try to get them right: it forces my brain to cut through (some of) the layers of social-desirability bias and Triversian self-deception to lay bare my actual beliefs about what I expect to see.

I made this tool to share that joy with you.